2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal) Conference
Dr. Ali Nazemi, Concordia University
Accurate quantification of Freeze and Thaw (FT) dynamics is essential for better understanding of environmental processes and socio-economic activities across cold regions. However, climate variability and change can significantly perturb the characteristics of FT patterns, which can in turn result in profound alterations in land-surface characteristics. Investigating the control of temperature on FT is therefore an important step toward advising effective adaptation strategies for future human developments at higher latitudes. There are, however, a number of deficiencies associated with in-situ measurement of FT in terms of temporal and spatial extent of data as well as limitations in extending the local data to regional knowledge. To avoid these gaps, we use gridded remotely sensed FT data record and pair them with gridded surface air temperature data to quantify the association between climate and FT patterns across Quebec during 1979 to 2016. We study the joint dependence between temperature and FT patterns analyze its variability over time and space. The copula methodology is employed to formally quantify temperature control on FT dynamics, which provides a generic tool for assessing the future FT according to future projections of temperature. Considering the changes in copula parameters, we address the role of geographic characteristics on altering the temperature control on FT.