2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal)

2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal) Conference

A Web application for rapid seismic risk assessment

Dr. Ahmad Abo-El-Ezz, Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada (Presenter)
Mr. Alex Smirnoff, Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada
Dr. Miroslav Nastev, Geological Survey of Canada
Dr. Nollet Marie-José, École de technologie supérieure
Ms. Heather McGrath, Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation, Natural Resources Canada
Mr. Nicholas Gibb, Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada

Numerous computer models have been developed for seismic loss analyses at urban and regional scales. They seem, however, ill-suited to custom application to the specific Canadian hazard and exposure settings and, more importantly, inadequate for utilization by the broader non-expert public safety community. Therefore, communication of the potential seismic risk results to local stakeholders, such that they can properly understand their exposure and vulnerability, represents an outstanding challenge. The objective of the present study is to describe the methodological background and ongoing development activities of the Rapid Risk Evaluator (ER2), a relatively rapid and user-friendly risk assessment application, developed to overcome the current communication barriers between risk experts and decision makers. Developing ER2 included: pre-computing site-specific databases containing ground motion scenarios, prediction of potential attenuation with distance and local site amplification, a standardized inventories of buildings’ structural properties and occupancy categories, and assessment of the seismic vulnerability using hazard-compatible vulnerability functions. These functions correlate directly the intensity of the seismic shaking to the probability of damage and direct economic and social losses. This approach allows for conducting risk scenarios in large urban centers within minutes. The above approach was programmed into an easy to run web-application. Equipped with graphic user interface, ER2 allows non-expert users to run otherwise complex seismic risk scenarios through a simple intuitive selection process. An example of ER2 applied to a hypothetical earthquake event in Quebec City is included to illustrate the simplicity of the user interface and capabilities of the application.