2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal)

2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal) Conference

Modeling Labor Productivity in Egypt using Regression Prediction Models

Mr. Amr Hegazy (Presenter)
Dr. Mona Abouhamad, Cairo University
Dr. Hesham Osman, Cairo University

Labor productivity is considered a critical issue in the construction industry in Egypt due to the lack of unified productivity rates together with the increased number of construction project in the last 10 years. Miscalculation of expected productivity rates and ignoring factors affecting the productivity leads to time and cost overrun leading to profit loss for contractor and project delay for owner, in addition to lost resources. This research develops a productivity prediction model through determining the factors affecting the labor productivity in Egypt and modeling their influence. The research used Activity Sampling method for data collection of daily productivity rates and probable factors affecting the productivity. More than 300 data points were collected for multiple activities, factor affecting the productivity, and their rate of change. Analysis is done using linear and non-linear regression prediction models to identify main driving factors for labor productivity given selected project assumptions. This research is a step towards modeling productivity rates in the Egyptian industry instead of relying on International rates which do not represent the Egyptian environment. The research identifies 31 main factors affecting labor productivity and considers four main factors, namely, number of labors per squared area, weather, overtime and constructed element height. The research concluded that these factors are the driving factors for the labor productivity for the demonstrated case study, accordingly the quantification of these factors during or before the project start is necessary to get a near realistic productivity levels. A case study is presented and the model output is compared against national Egyptian Production Rates, several in-house data for leading Egyptian companies, and different international rates.